The most common form of value betting calculator. Kelly, Jr in 1956. 8. When writing, prolific three-year-old Shaquille is set to go off the shortest-priced favourite for this race in the last ten years. I was thinking of creating a spreadsheet to help me at the track but why do that if someone already has this. 66. Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to information theory (K elly Jr, 1956). The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. Andrew Asquith. It was believed earlier that winning a bet is. Of course, the bracket has to be reduced in this year's race because of a lack of strength and depth. F. 1. Kelly betting systems are ones that use the Kelly criterion. More. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Bailey to score with Gwen in Thursday 14/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: Hughes can get the best out of. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. . Premier League. a betting fund) over the long term by determining the optimal stake on a. The Kelly criterion is a formula that can be used to determine the optimal size of a bet. To avoid complicated. Horse racing - In-running; ↳ Bet Angel Automation - Horse racing - Pre off; ↳ Bet Angel Automation - General;Horse Racing Tips: Blackmore to get us rolling at Punchestown with Thursday multiple ;. many horses; he assumed the track take to be zero. 70 2pt win Both Point Given and Classy Boy - 7/4 2. 33pts. However, in order to reach that conclusion, we must wager with a flat betting plan for a large number of bets. In another example, you may have a perceived edge of 55% (0. ple and correct procedure to apply the Kelly strategy for the general case. Horse Racing Bet of the Day is replacing our. Remember that value betting is a long term strategy requiring many, many bets to achieve a statistically significant outcome. Few people know racing or betting better than Tony Calvin and so we asked our lead tipster on how he makes the game a. Example of the Kelly Criterion: Let’s say you have analyzed a game and determined that the underdogs have a 40% chance of winning, and their odds are +200 (3. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. The Kelly Criterion helps you calculate the optimal amount you should wager when there is a difference between the true odds and the given odds at the. But as always, the dots connect and your circle of competence will play a major role in determining the probabilities of. Golf. What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b. 00. Essentially the formula gives the optimal size of bets in order to win as much as possible over time while reducing the risk of ruin. Tony Calvin has been in the racing and tipping business for over 25 years, encompassing a 12-year stint at the Racing Post and an 11-year spell as Head Of Media at Betfair. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Well, duh, the title is The Kelly Criterion in Blackjack, Sports Betting and Stock Market. In addition, betting with the Kelly Criterion may occasionally be worse than constant betting even after several thousand bets. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. Get a Free £5 Bet on Multiples Every Day! Place £20 worth of Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled. Wanees has the right sort of profile for this race and. More Horse Racing. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. Premier. Euro 2024. The objective is to maximize the Kelly criterion, which is equivalent to maximizing the ex-pected logarithm of wealth. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. In order to use it, your selection process must be able to identify the expected probability of your horse winning. to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. It helps tells us the odds or likelihood of each outcome and helps us determine what size bet to place on each outcome. 55)-0. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three new bets for Betfair Chase Day up to 12/1; Rachael Blackmore: Hoping classy Quilixios can run a big race in Grade 2 chaseThe Kelly Criterion only works if one has an advantage over the game they are playing. Calculate Bet The formula is as follows: WINNING RATE - LOSING RATE / AVG. Now live in 25 states, this. The Dewhurst at 14:00 had 33 entries on Monday morning but we are down to 12 now. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. This means that you. Keep in mind that this is a high percentage and the ideal amount you should bet is 3% of your bankroll or less. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. Ante-Post betting. This means that the bettor should wager 20% of their bankroll on Liverpool to win. WITH KELLY. The first step in using. Kelly Staking is in its simplest form, your edge divided by the fractional price your’re backing at. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. 00. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities. Horse Racing Tips. Nick Mordin devoted a chapter to the Kelly Criterion in his book Winning Without Thinking, which also had the original paper in the appendix,. Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 11/8 Adjuvant's flat speed can land Hereford opener; Horse. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. A more general problem was considered in. In relation to sports betting, it’s. The Kelly criterion, which was first published in 1956, was soon adopted by gamblers who were able to use the formula for horse racing. THE KELLY CRITERION IN BLACKJACK, SPORTS BETTING, AND THE STOCK MARKET by Edward O. Racing. The standard kelly betting is 1. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. Unsurprisingly, the volatility or variance in the evolution of the bankroll is greatest for full-Kelly and least for eighth-Kelly. Betfair, our. The formula takes into account the probability of winning a bet, the odds of the bet, and the bettor’s bankroll size. The King George V Handicap (15:05) is always a very tough contest to decipher that is chock-full of promising three-year-olds with scope to improve over this longer. No opt. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion calculator horse racing or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. Determine whether. The first step in using the Kelly Criterion for horse racing betting is to analyze various factors that affect the outcome of the race. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. 2023 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to 1pt stake (0. Brechin Castle (Ire) B. 24 on the Exchange have four decent horses. Total Performance Data have recorded his max stride at 26. Kelly Criterion was developed in 1956 by John L. This isn’t taking into account your odds, probability or perception of value. ROI = -14. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ;. The horses rated in that sweet spot in this year's race amount to. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. When we bet the amount that this formula indicates, we say that we are using the full Kelly Criterion . Satiate should go close in this restricted $5k claimer on the main track. She is currently rated 94 and 6/1 6. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root. com. That, in a nutshell, is how the Kelly Criterion works. Kelly Criterion – Background. How big a buy-in should you be willing to pay? Suppose you're horse racing, and you think that 2 of the horses are priced wrong, how much should you bet on each?. Matej Uhrín, Gustav Šourek, Ondřej Hubáček, Filip Železný. The most common form of value betting calculator. O. Brookhouse. We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. 1 of the amount they have set aside for gambling purposes. Enter the odds, which represent the potential payout for winning the bet. If I apply the Kelly Criterion based upon the historical odds of that factor 7/2, instead of true post odds, is that a valid way of applying Kelly? Furthermore, I created an Excel Spreadsheet to analyze my results, and based upon my Kelly formula, it says that I can bet 9. Charlie Deutsch. 33pts. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three new bets for Betfair Chase Day up to 12/1; Rachael Blackmore: Hoping classy Quilixios can run a big race in Grade 2 chaseInformation regarding Kelly Criterion and betting simulation is readily available online and important for those who want to stay profitable long term. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. 66% of your bank. The best staking plan debate. 1 – 1. 10. The Kelly Criterion is a famous formula developed by its name-sake John Kelly Jr and is used by many a handicapper and blackjack player. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. Before addressing your investment strategy, learn about the Kelly criterion and see if it’s a fit for you. The calculator will tell you whether or not you should be betting and how much to stake. Its status is as prominent as "rotation matrix" in the field of digital lotto. The Kelly Staking Plan is based on using the ‘Kelly Constant’. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: . The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that can be used in several. Getting staking right is key to profitable punting. Today, Warren Buffet and others use it for investing purposes. They wanted me to figure out a way to compute the Kelly criterion (see below) as a means to exponentially increase their pool of money over repeated bets. It can also be a. Kelly gambling problem, and relate it to classical Markowitz portfolio optimization. 14% July = -7. I think he was right. 75 in addition to your stake of $57. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. The formula compares that probability with the odds available, and adjusts the stake accordingly for maximum profitability. Royal Ascot - 15:40: Lay Bluestocking. How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. At some point, the newest Kelly Standards calculator, while you are exact together with your examined probability is always to improve your well worth and funds over an extended-identity several months. It just happens to coincide with log-utility. Glenn, and was bred in by . Kelly described. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. Get a better job. Kelly Jr. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. The course stages racing over distances up to 1850m, with 4 chutes on the back half of the track. 00 – 1) f* =0. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. 0. The Kelly Criterion is a method by which you can used your assessed probability of an event occurring in conjunction with the odds for the event and your bankroll, to work out how much to wager on the event to maximise your value. 40) / 1 = 0. All the more recently, the strategy has seen a renaissance, in response to claims that unbelievable investors Warren Buffett and. In this paper, we provide a new approach to apply-ing the Kelly criterion to stock market investments. Kelly Criterion maximizes the wealth in the long-run. The simplified Kelly Criterion has some potential flaws and can give some head-scratching results which are explained in the article above. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. 10. 1-p)The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine the proper size of a bet with known odds and a definite payout. Using the Kelly Calculator The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. She slips back. 05 2/1 coming off second best to Pied Piper 4. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where multiple types of bets are available for a. Kelly’s work focused on optimizing information transmission over a noisy channel. The Kelly Criterion. By inputting the odds, the probability of the event occurring and your betting balance, you will be able to. Previously he had competed in a couple of good races at York and his trainer Geoff Oldroyd. Lets make a Kelly Criterion example: Bettingfund: $10. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race; How to use Timeform Ratings;Football. For any queries relating to. 16 August 2023. 10 Ideas for Trifecta Profits (Part 1) The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. Many pro-bettors around the world recommend the use of the Kelly Criterion or a modified version of it. This post provides a simple derivation of the Kelly criterion, which will hopefully provide additional insight. Four staking plans are compared: full-Kelly, half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly and eighth-Kelly. ALAN DUDMAN'S P & L. In an example in which you think a horse should be 6 to 4 (40% chance of winning) and its odds are 5/2 (or 2. Based on the Kelly criterion, K% = (1 × 0. Thorp. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner: Kelly CriterionIn horse racing, this is based on the player’s own handicapping of the race. 10st 9lbs. WINNING ODDS In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. View the Betslip. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. Featured Football. Horse Racing Tips: Kelly Criterion,horse racing tips,horse racing,racing tips,horse, racing, tips, Pages. In this case: P= 0. Kelly described the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. F = ( (1. For sports bettors, the Kelly Criterion sports betting strategy is capable of maximizing potential profit, while minimizing both volatility and threat. Then, you divide 0. I would like to use Kelly Criterion but I do not manage to use it at more bets at the same time. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. This is Kellys Equation. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. Kelly Criterion's model is based on a mathematical formula developed by this author in the mid-1950s. Twitter user @optibrebs recently made me aware of the generalised Kelly Criterion (a. Today, Warren Buffet and others use it for investing purposes. A race involves M horses, and is described by a normalized vector of winning probabilities p, an inverse-odds vector r and a gambler strategy b. The worksheet tracks your bets and provides in-depth performance data as well as a profit graph. We develop a general framework to apply the Kelly criterion to the stock market data, and consequently, to portfolio optimization. You think the horse has 50% of winning. It was developed in 1956 by John Larry Kelly Jr. If the bet is successful, the bettor would win £36 for every £20 wagered. 31% of your bankroll on Real Madrid. Optimal sports betting strategies in practice: an experimental review. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b. To be honest I have been successfully using the simple/naïve Kelly Criterion for years and haven’t bothered looking anywhere else. g. 0. ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. 5. com. Introduction In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. (You can turn a negative ROI into a positive one — at least in games of skill like horse racing — through greater education and better information. T&Cs apply. This is a mathematical formula which tells you how much to bet in any given situation. In addition to our automated calculator above, you can also download our excel version below. Venera. The multiplier is normally set to 50%, for an aggressive betting strategy set it to 100%. e. 1, 2 Try out the Kelly Criterion Calculator below, but pay careful attention to heavy favorites (i. Finally, I set myself a task to review the betting decisions I make and probabilities I assign. Blackbow - 14:00 Naas. Get a completely free horse racing multiple bet and horse racing tips from Tony Calvin and more plus expert insight from Paul Nicholls and Ryan Moore. g. Abstract and Figures. 40)- 0. 60 – 0. betfair. We denote the fractions as b2Rn, so b 0 and 1Tb= 1, where 1 is the vector with allIn its simplest possible form, the Kelly Criterion states that, on an even money bet, the percentage of the bankroll to bet is: (Win probability x 2) - 1. Here are five tips to help you use the Kelly sports betting strategy more effectively. Kelly Criterion Formula. Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. Based on this equation and outcome, you should only be wagering 10 percent of your bankroll on the proposed wager. Thirsk - 15:10 - Back Granny B. Betfair column. Featured Horse Racing. Serial Winners. who was a mathematician at Bell Labs in the 1950s. 00 x 0. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. 6 (60% chance of success). Kelly Criteria was developed in 1956 by John L. The Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy created by J L Kelly, a scientific researcher, back in 1956. Before addressing your. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. 9st 8lbs. Racing Results & Replays. This value should be in decimal format (e. 5 which equals a stake of 16. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. This has been applied to various games, including horse racing. Use the Right Formula. Whenever the question of optimal betting size pops up in handicapping or money management books, you usually see Kelly. 48) / 1 = 0. French Horse Racing Tips from the betting experts at betting. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. 2. 35 * 0. The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that can be used in several. From this calculation, if you were to bet on the Celtics to beat the Lakers, the Kelly Criterion suggests you should only bet 4% of your bankroll or capital. 8. By using the Kelly Criterion, you can maximize your profits while minimizing your risk of ruin. 0= 1. it did not take long for the gambling community to further develop the formula to apply it to horse racing. Most only know a simplified version. It was only after later that the formula was applied to investing. 50). 45)/1=0. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Featured Rugby. Kelly Jr. He's a BIG player in the financial markets and I'm sure he moves that kind of money all the time. The Kelly betting criterion ignores uncertainty in the probability of winning the bet and uses an estimated probability. at Bell Labs, is an optimal sizing of bets, given an initial pool of wealth, to maximize the doubling rate of wealth in a repeated bets scenario. Football. Heva Rose had some fairly useful form over hurdles and fences when trained in France but she has failed to make an impact over hurdles since joining. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that is used to take optimally sized bets and grow your capital at the maximum rate possible. Cricket. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapping Library: New book about Kelly criterionA simple 'trick' with this strategy is to simply to back at the current lay price and lay at the current back price. 2 Kelly gambling In Kelly gambling, we place a xed fraction of our total wealth (assumed positive) on nbets. Red Mile VP Sees Sports Betting as Boost for Kentucky Horse Racing. Named after its inventor, John L. Volleyball Tips. Of course, the Kelly has also been adapted for other “bets,” including blackjack, sports betting, and playing the stock market. This mare beat Jima's Gold at Turfway Park back in February. 31% of your bankroll on Real Madrid. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. at Bell Labs, is a strategy for the optimal sizing of bets in the repeated bets scenario in his seminal paper¹. Downloadable (with restrictions)! This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. Betting Strategies For Horse Racing Part 2: Kelly Criterion. 00 x 0. 6%) but your estimate of the ‘true’ probability of the draw is 30%. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the. Cheltenham Festival: Expert Betting Advice & Predictions for the 2023 Cheltenham: Cheltenham Races Tips Cheltenham Betting Offers Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice. Featured Horse Racing. 1 day ago · Featured Horse Racing. The Kelly Criterion only works if one has an advantage over the game they are playing. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. 00 x 0. This post will serve as the first of a series to discuss the Kelly criterion. 48 B = 2-1 = 1. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three new bets for Betfair Chase Day up to 12/1; Rachael Blackmore: Hoping classy Quilixios can run a big race in Grade 2 chase1 day ago · Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. New show alert. Race 2 21:38 Hawthorne - Satiate. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. A more general problem was considered in. Bell and Cover (1988), discuss a game-theoretical optimality of Kelly portfolios. Recent. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: England to finish on high with Argentina win. For example, consider you are betting on a coin to land on heads at 2. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. Kelly Criterion – Part 2 – Derivation. Vanessa Ryle, Tony Calvin Kevin Blake, Dan Barber and Barry Orr discussed all five glorious days of racing and covered everything you need to know from Tuesday's starting stalls to the finish line. 7 7/2 when they made their hurdling. The formula is as follows: f = the fraction of the bankroll to bet. k. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Hence we focus on the use of the Kelly criterion, although our results here have general implications for bettors and indeed for all decision makers who maximize utility functions under parameter uncertainty. They Kelly criterion is a formula used to determine how much of your money to place on a particular gamble. Betfair's star racing tipster Tony Calvin brings a full guide to Saturday's racing on ITV with four bets at prices from 6/1 to 20/1 at Newmarket, York and Ascot. He was sired by Sebring out of the Bite The Bullet mare Mica's Pride. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. Aidan O'Brien's unbeaten River Tiber 9/43. Kelly, Jr in 1956. To overcome the bookmaker's margin you need. A new formulation of the fractional Kelly strategy, which involves betting a fixed fraction of the amount suggested by the Kelly criterion, is also presented for this type of scenario. 5) – 60)/2) = 16% of your bank. Editor. 55) / 1. Kelly Criterion General Discussion : Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion: Kelly Criterion. Featured Horse Racing. while working at AT&T's Bell Laboratories. The Kelly Criterion Model is a fascinating model that takes little knowledge of sports to be successful if executed properly. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. Horse Racing Tips. The Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy created by J L Kelly, a scientific researcher, back in 1956. 00 The 2m handicap at 14:25 is much more up my usual betting strasse, and I thought it would be, once again. I think he was right. 45)/ (2. 25 so an edge of 25% divided by 1. Kelly of AT&T Bell Laboratories, the Kelly Criterion is a formula designed to boost betting profits by determining the ideal percentage of capital to be staked on each wagering event. Such an outcome may apply to blackjack and horse racing, but rarely to capital markets investments. 5 decimally), the equation gives you (((40*2. Duhallow Tommy showed a fairly useful level of form in bumpers last season, opening his account in that sphere at the third attempt at Fontwell in January, and he. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. b = the decimal odds – 1. In other words, according to the Kelly Criterion, in this case, football lovers should stake 0. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. scientific gambling method ), is an effective strategy in every sense of the word. In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. 80. Horse Racing Tips: Let's have a disco in Wales with Ffos Las Sunday double; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Auteuil Racing Tips: Native's stamina the key to first Grade 1 success; Horse Racing. It helps tells us the odds or likelihood of each outcome and helps us determine what size bet to place on each outcome. Kelly Strategy Bet Calculator. It was only after later that the formula was applied to investing. 4 feet, with elite performers such as Frankel, Sea The Stars and. The Kelly Criterion implies you should bet 22. Here at Betting. The Kelly criterion is one model of investment money management, but it’s not the only one.